BoFA's Michael Hartnett ist lt. zerohedge der genaueste Wall Street Analyst von 2022. Hier seine 'trades' für 2023 und seine Zusammenfassung der Entwicklungen von 2022. Vorsicht, dies gilt für die US-amerikanische Sicht. So liegt Gold in Euro seit Jahresbeginn deutlich im Plus.
Wie lässt sich das für deutsche Investoren übersetzen, einschließlich dem Risiko größerer Verwerfungen wegen der EU-Sanktionspolitik und einer irrationalen, fremdgesteuerten Regierung? US-Treasuries, Gold, Chinaaktien?
And while we have published more detailed reports on this topic before, here are Hartnett's 10 trades for 2023:
1. Long 30-year US Treasury...on recession, unemployment, Fed cuts late'23, history (US Treasury returns have never fallen for 3 consecutive years).
2. Yield curve steepeners...as US yield curve always steepens as recession begins and markets anticipate Fed flipping from hikes to cuts.
3. Short US$, long EM assets...long EM distressed bonds, Korea won on China reopening, Mexican peso on "nearshoring".
4. Long China stocks...COVID reopening was v bullish for US/EAFE stocks, China has high "excess savings" and China stocks remain v contrarian long trade.
5. Long gold & copper...US$ peak, China reopening, metal inventory shortages, energy transition acceleration, need in 2020s for inflation hedges.
6. Barbell credit...long credit too consensus in '23, we barbell long IG tech bonds (>5% yield + strong balance sheets) with distressed HY debt in Asia (17% yield).
7. Long global industrials and small cap stocks...secular leadership shift in 2020s from deflation to inflation assets, driven by globalization to localization, monetary to fiscal excess, inequality to inclusion and so on just beginning; capex set to be new macro bull story (see industrials breaking above -1stdev level relative to S&P 500).
8. Short US tech...the old leadership, still over-owned, era of QE is no longer, era of globalization no longer, plus peak penetration and regulation risks.
9. Short US private equity...the old leadership, redemption risks given shadow banking exposures to housing & credit risks.
10. Long EU banks, short Canada/Aussie/NZ/Sweden banks...EU fiscal stimulus to wean Eurozone off Russian energy dependence, Chinese export dependence, US military dependence vs real estate market busts in Canada/Australia/NZ/Sweden.
brings us to Hartnett's stroll down memory lane: 2022 in 22 numbers
• 9.1%...US CPI hit a 40-year high
• 45.8%...German PPI hit a 100-year high
• 2...number of Fed rate hikes forecast for 2022 in the BofA Global FMS in Dec’21
• 284...number of central bank rate hikes YTD in 2022 (>1 per trading day )
• 5.4x...ratio of US private sector financial assets to GDP (vs peak of 6.2x)
• 1969...US unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, lowest since 1969
• 34%...record YoY rise in Miami house prices YoY in May’22
• -35%...return from the 30-year US Treasury bond, worst in over a century
• <$1tn...crypto currency crash took crypto market market cap from $3tn to <$1tn
• 2...commodities were best performing asset class for 2nd consecutive year
• 90%...rise in natural gas prices, best performing commodity of ‘22
• 382mn barrels...US strategic petroleum reserve slashed to lowest since 1984
• €750bn...fiscal policy stimulus in Europe & UK to offset war
• 47%...rise in Chevron, best performing stock in Dow Jones
• -49%...collapse in Salesforce, worst performing stock in Dow Jones
• $3.6tn...market cap slump in FAAMG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google)
• $33tn...global equity market cap slump from Nov'21 high
• -50%...decline in private equity stocks from Nov'21 high
• 2009...Hang Seng Index fell to lowest level since 2009
• 33%...yield on China HY bonds rose to staggering 33% (spreads>3000bps)
• -16%...Japanese yen was worst performing major currency
• 76%...best performing equity market in US$-terms was Turkey